Even basic statistics cannot predict how a presidential candidate will act once in office. No pre-written and rehearsed speech will reveal the candidate’s heart and soul. No thirty-second paid ad or a 15 second sound bite from a speech shines a light on the future seen by the candidate.
In the end we know less about a presidential candidate than we know about the neighbor two doors down or the upstairs apartment. Our votes reflect our opinions that have been shaped by our experiences and colored by the political ads and sound bites of news reports.
In the voting booth, to a large part, we vote our personal, recent history. If your recent experience has been some what positive you may vote for more of the same. If you have recently lived a troubled recent history you will tend to vote for a change. How you perceive the candidates position on change is the actual guide for your vote.

Wyo_knott